12:27 PM GMT - According to Barclays analysts' report, the dollar might ultimately find stability following its recent decline. They indicate that US economic indicators show stronger performance than anticipated. Since President Trump unveiled extensive tariff measures in April, expecting them to potentially weaken the US economy, the dollar has been weakening. "Despite robust US data, less stringent fiscal policies compared to expectations, increased geopolitical tensions, and potential worldwide demand reduction due to these tariffs regardless of the outcome," the narrative continues persistently. Over the next year, Barclays projects the euro will stay near its estimated value of $1.15. Currently, the euro is trading up 0.3%, at $1.1603. Meanwhile, the DXY Dollar Index drops by 0.4% to reach 98.026. renae.dyer@wsj.com )
The Dollar Might Decrease More If Powell Indicates Interest Rate Reductions
0837 GMT – The dollar may weaken further should Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hint at additional interest-rate reductions during his address to Congress scheduled for 1400 GMT, according to ING analyst Francesco Pesole in a report. There's now a higher likelihood of such indications following comments from Fed members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman suggesting they favor lowering rates as soon as this month, he notes. Any shift towards a more lenient approach regarding rate decreases by Powell might be seen by markets as evidence that President Trump’s push for reduced lending costs has compromised the autonomy of the Fed. This perception could lead to significant devaluation of the dollar,Pesole warns. At present, the DXY dollar index dips by 0.3%, settling at 98.103; previously, it hit a seven-day minimum point of 97.969 amid reports about a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. renae.dyer@wsj.com )
Sterling Might Bounce Back Against Euro Following Poor Performance in June
0947 GMT - According to Bank of America currency analyst Kamal Sharma, Sterling is expected to rebound against the Euro following another disappointing performance in June. He notes that over recent years, Sterling has continually weakened compared to the Euro during this period. "Based solely on seasonal trends, we anticipate that the exchange rate between the Euro and Sterling may weaken further starting from July," he states. Additionally, potential economic shocks due to US-imposed tariffs might affect Europe more significantly than the UK. Recent consensus predictions for UK economic growth have shown improvement as well, according to him. Currently trading at 0.8528 pounds per Euro, BoFA projects the conversion rate to move back into a range of 0.75 to 0.80 over the long-term horizon. Data provided by LSEG indicates that within this month, the value of the Euro rose by about 1.1% relative to Sterling. renae.dyer@wsj.com )
The Dollar Drops Following Trump’s Announcement of an Israel-Iran Truce
0632 GMT — The dollar drops to its lowest point in a week relative to a group of major currencies as crude oil prices dip and the appeal of safer assets diminishes following President Trump’s announcement that Israel and Iran have reached an understanding to halt hostilities. Despite this truce, doubts linger since early indications suggest Iran may be disregarding the terms aimed at ending the confrontation, according to analyst Mohit Kumar from Jefferies in his report. Nevertheless, traders might feel somewhat relieved knowing that significant escalations seem less likely now. As a result, the DXY dollar index slides by 0.4%, reaching down to 97.969. renae.dyer@wsj.com )