On Friday, the Nifty recaptured the key 25,000 level, boosting confidence in the resilience of major market indexes. Nevertheless, on Sunday, the U.S. attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities amid intensifying geopolitical strains in the Middle East.
The markets are preparing for possible risk-averse selling as trading resumes on Monday. The GIFT Nifty suggested a tepid opening for Dalal Street.
SEBI-registered analyst Rajneesh Sharma observed that when markets commence trading on Monday, retail-driven panic triggered by gaps downward, surges in oil prices, and concerning news headlines might overshadow investor mood, leading to reduced stock valuations which institutions could potentially take advantage of for entering positions.
On Nifty He noted that the index had a bullish setup technically prior to the increase. On Friday, the index recovered both the 21-day EMA and the 50-day SMA on the weekly chart, with an ADX of 13 indicating a possible breakout.
Sharma highlighted at an important level that maintaining a positive close for the Nifty by the end of the week on June 27 would keep the bullish scenario alive. The coming days will be vital in distinguishing temporary market fluctuations from the core story.
Analyst Harika Enjamuri thinks the index is nearing a narrow resistance area between 25,120 and 25,220. She noted that short-term indicators, such as those seen on 5-minute and 15-minute charts, indicate an upward trend, with the 9, 70, and 100 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) aligned constructively, bolstering bullish sentiment.
The Relative Strength Index on the 15-minute chart reading at 64 indicates ongoing buying momentum yet also points towards potential short-term fatigue as it approaches resistance levels.
Enjamuri pointed out that surpassing 25,220 decisively might push prices up towards 25,300–25,360. However, failing to stay above 25,020 could result in some profit-taking, driving the index down to levels of 24,965 and even 24,880. Buying opportunities with lower risk could emerge near 25,000–25,020 if supported by robust trading volumes.
She determines that the immediate trend continues to be optimistic; however, participants ought to keep an eye on 25,220 as this could signal either a possible breakthrough or shift. For now, purchasing during dips around support areas stays the recommended approach.
Kush Ghodasara emphasized two potential outcomes for the Nifty index this week.
From an optimistic perspective, the Nifty index successfully closed above the 10-15 day moving average resistance level of 24,950, turning this point into immediate support. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bullish crossover within itself, signaling a higher likelihood of continued upward movement. Based on these conditions, Ghodasara recommends entering long positions above 25,150, aiming for targets at 25,450 and 25,900, with a protective stop-loss placed below 24,850.
From a bearish viewpoint, the Nifty finished at the crucial 25,150 resistance point, which has previously served as a robust obstacle on three separate instances. Additionally, the 25,200 mark—representing the recent peak and acting as the 78.6% retracement resistance from the prior significant decline (ranging from 26,277 down to 21,743)—is looming ominously nearby. Furthermore, the price action for the past week remained contained within the boundaries set by the preceding week, sparking worries about the resilience of the current movement.
He pointed out that for the bearish approach, one should sell beneath 24,950, aiming for levels at 24,650 and 24,250, with a stop loss set at 25,277.
This week's main query still revolves around whether Friday's breakout was a corrective action or marks the beginning of a fresh upward trend.
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