On Monday, the value of the dollar increased due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict, which continued after US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.
Around 2:45 PM Central European Summer Time, the Dollar Index climbed by 0.61% during intraday trading to reach 99.31.
Throughout the month, there was a 0.19% rise; however, its performance for the year was still down nearly 9%. It couldn’t recover from the setbacks caused by the inconsistent policies during the Trump administration.
The US President Donald Trump claimed that the attacks over the weekend resulted in "significant destruction," though certain Iranian authorities minimized their effects. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors atomic activities globally, was unable to ascertain the complete scope of the damages right away.
Israel — meanwhile — continued with its strikes on Iran on Monday, while Tehran vowed that it would “never surrender to bullying and oppression”.
Several nations warned Iran against a retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane responsible for around 20% of global oil and gas flows.
"This morning, the dollar showed a anticipated recovery. According to ING economists' notes, both the display of US military power and concerns over increased oil costs contributed to the weakening of the euro," they explained.
Elevated oil prices could potentially boost inflation and make the US Federal Reserve hesitant about lowering interest rates soon. This situation would be detrimental to American consumers but concurrently enhance the appeal of the U.S. dollar among investors.
"Moving forward, a significant question is whether U.S. participation in the conflict might revive the dollar's status as a safe haven. A critical element here would be how long an eventual Strait of Hormuz blockage persists. If this continues for an extended period, it increases the chances that alternative safe havens like the euro and yen lose their value, allowing the dollar to experience substantial gains," noted ING economists.
This year, the U.S. dollar has seen a considerable decline in value due to policies implemented under the Trump administration, which have unsettled investors and undermined the currency's reputation as a secure investment option.
Worries among investors aren’t just tied to trade policies; they also encompass issues like a significant U.S. budget deficit, the cost-cutting agency known as DOGE, abrupt reductions in foreign assistance, exits from global agreements, and the potential for loosening financial regulations.
Greg Hirt, who serves as the chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors, informed appstoreofficial.idthat "ongoing structural problems related to a dual deficit and the unpredictable approach of the Trump administration towards tariffs will likely keep exerting pressure on the overpriced US dollar."
He pointed out that "the short-term possibility of increased oil prices might impact the Chinese and European economies more significantly since they rely more heavily on imported oil compared to the US."
Ryan Sweet, the chief US economist at Oxford Economics, reinforced this idea, stating that "while the US economy is largely self-sufficient when it comes to energy, many countries are not, such as Japan which relies heavily on importing oil from the Middle East."
Sweet told appstoreofficial.idthat dollar gains are positive but still muted as “currency markets are in a wait and see mode”.
There is considerable ambiguity surrounding President Trump’s tariff deadline, as a 90-day hiatus on what are known as "reciprocal" tariffs is scheduled to end on July 9th.