1510 ET – Oil futures extend yesterday’s losses as the Israel-Iran cease-fire takes another chunk of risk premium out of the market and fundamentals come back into focus. “We don’t see any permanent change to supply” as a result of the conflict, says Brian Kessens, portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. Tortoise expects OPEC+ to unwind all of its voluntary additional output cuts by year-end, leaving the market “marginally oversupplied” by 300,000 or 400,000 barrels a day, he says. “Over the longer term it will be healthier for the crude oil market because we won’t be playing this game about how is OPEC+ going to manage the market.” WTI settles down 6% at $64.37 a barrel and Brent falls 6.1% to $67.14 a barrel. ( anthony.harrup@wsj.com )
Oil Drops More Than 5% as Geopolitical Tension Premium Wanes
1633 GMT - Oil futures continued their decline, with both Brent and WTI dropping more than 5.5%, as a tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems to persist despite breaches reported earlier today. "Over the past twenty-four hours, the global political scenario has changed significantly," explains Ole Hansen, who heads up commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "This shift removed the price increase due to potential supply risks that we've seen accumulate over the preceding twelve days." During after-hours trading, both crude markers fell another 5.7% to settle at $66.52 and $64.59 per barrel correspondingly, marking declines within the range of 12-13% compared to the start of the week. "The speculative boost driven by geopolitical tensions wasn’t likely to endure without tangible impacts on supplies," notes Hansen. He adds, "Given current economic challenges linked to the continuing U.S.-China trade conflict along with projections indicating plentiful stockpiles extending through fall and winter seasons post-OPEC+'s recent hikes in production targets, this situation makes sustaining high prices even less probable." giulia.petroni@wsj.com )
Oil Continues Decline as Trump States China May Purchase Iranian Petroleum
09:40 AM ET - Oil futures are declining further as President Trump shares a message on Truth Social stating that China could import oil from Iran. "China can now keep buying oil from Iran. I hope they'll also buy substantial amounts from the US," he states. China remains a major purchaser of Iranian petroleum, despite several independent Chinese refineries being subject to sanctions by the U.S. This comes after both Israel and Iran declared a truce, reducing some geopolitical risks tied to oil prices. As a result, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) drops 4.8%, trading at $65.22 per barrel, while Brent decreases by 4.7% to reach $68.10 per barrel. anthony.harrup@wsj.com )
Oil Probably Will Stay Around $70 If Truce Is Maintained, According to Rystad Says
12:13 PM GMT — According to Rystad Energy, oil prices may stay close to $70 per barrel should the ceasefire between Israel and Iran endure. "What matters most for the oil market right now is observing how this ceasefire and a possible U.S.-Iran agreement unfold," states Mukesh Sahdev, who leads global commodities at Rystad Energy. He adds, "Signals currently point towards uncertainty, with persistent geopolitical risks maintaining high levels of volatility despite steps being taken toward peace." Traders keep an eye on regional events and their implications for supplies. Both sides blamed each other immediately following the commencement of the truce, alleging they had been attacked. During midday trading, Brent crude dropped 3.7%, settling at $67.93 a barrel, whereas West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 3.6%, reaching $66.01 a barrel. giulia.petroni@wsj.com )
Oil Fundamentals Expected to Remain Stable Despite Middle East Tensions
0421 GMT - According to Morningstar's Allen Good in a research memo, significant shifts in oil fundamentals are improbable despite escalating Middle Eastern tensions. Good observes that crude oil prices increased marginally by around 1%, observed during early morning trades on Monday following the U.S.'s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Predicting short-term movements in oil prices remains challenging for him, thus he advises against making investment decisions regarding oil stocks purely based on speculative forecasts linked with the swiftly unfolding geopolitical situation. Despite this, Morningstar maintains its focus on underpriced equities associated with oil, valuing them according to their prediction model which assumes an average price of $60 per barrel over the longer haul. As of press time, front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures have dropped by 2.5% to settle at $66.79 per bbl, whereas front-month Brent crude futures slipped similarly by 2.4% to reach $69.74 per bbl. tracy.qu@wsj.com )
Crude Oil Drops as Concerns Over Supply Disruptions Ease
0009 GMT — Crude oil prices declined during early trading in Asia due to easing concerns over potential supply disruptions following President Trump's statement suggesting an agreement for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Around 6 p.m. Eastern Time, Trump posted on Truth Social stating that complete and total cessation of hostilities would occur within approximately six hours after both nations finished their last operation. As per this development, the near-term West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures dropped by 3.8%, settling at $65.93 per barrel, whereas the corresponding contract for North Sea Brent crude fell by 3.6% to reach $68.89 per barrel. ronnie.harui@wsj.com )