Ken Rogoff Warns AI's Hunger For Power Could Send Interest Rates Soaring: 'You're Going To See Even More Spending, Not Less'
According to Harvard Professor and ex-IMF Chief Economist, artificial general intelligence might not result in the deflationary future that certain investors anticipate. Ken Rogoff .
What Happened: In an appearance on the Dwarkesh Patel Podcast earlier this month, Rogoff cautioned that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) might lead to increased inflation. This would maintain upward pressure on interest rates as demands for energy and infrastructure investments rise.
“AGI and AI are upward pressures on interest rates,” he says, adding that with “the huge energy needs [and] the capital investment, you’re going to see even more spending, not less.”
See Also: Microsoft’s AI Gets $80 Billion—While Pink Slips Print By The Thousand
This starkly contrasts with other economists and specialists who have subsequently remarked that AI and artificial general intelligence are largely deflationary. Rogoff, nonetheless, warns against misunderstanding the process through which labor-intensive technological transformations occur.
“Traditionally, when you did a lot of investment, it raised wages,” he said, while citing research by MIT economist Daron Acemoglu , who has shown that automation doesn't always lead to falling wages or lower investment, but it can shift the economy toward capital-intensive growth paths instead.
Rogoff concludes that this isn’t going to be a deflationary story like it’s being projected, while adding that “this could actually make life harder for central banks, not easier.”
Why It Matters: Rogoff offers a contrarian take on the predictions made by several experts and economists on the matter in recent months.
The CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman , recently said that AI would have a deflationary effect On the global economy, which he states is overlooked and not well comprehended by investors.
Investor and macroeconomist Raoul Pal , too, has repeated comparable assertions, describing artificial intelligence technology as a "deflationary nuclear bomb."
He said that “The cheaper it [AI] gets, the cheaper everything gets… electricity is the other one,” in a post on X, late last year.
Read More:
- Barack Obama Cautions That The AI Revolution Isn’t Exaggerated, Mentions ‘You’ll Begin Noticing Changes...’
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This article Ken Rogoff Alerts That AI's Insatiable Demand for Energy Might Cause Skyrocketing Interest Rates: "Expect Increased Expenditure, Not Reduced" originally appeared on .