Two key elements typically shape stock prices over the long term: earnings and interest rates. While investors have no say in the latter, they can concentrate on analyzing a firm’s quarterly earnings reports.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Being able to spot stocks poised to exceed quarterly earnings projections can lead to profits, though it’s not an easy feat. At Zacks, we use our Earnings ESP filter to simplify this process for you.
Zacks Earnings ESP: An Explanation
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, known as ESP, functions by focusing on the latest revisions made by analysts regarding their earnings forecasts since these updates tend to be more precise compared to predictions made several weeks or even months prior to the official announcement. This approach is based on a simple premise: analysts giving projections nearer to the reporting date usually possess more current data at hand.
Having grasped the fundamental concept, let’s delve into the workings of the Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP). This metric is derived by contrasting the Most Accurate Estimate against the Zacks Consensus Estimate; the discrepancy between these figures, expressed as a percentage, yields the Zacks ESP value.
Combining a favorable EPS surprise with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or higher has led to successful earnings surprises for stocks about 70% of the time. Additionally, employing these criteria has resulted in an average annual return of 28.3%, based on our ten-year backtesting analysis.
The majority of stocks, approximately 60%, are placed in the #3 (Hold) classification and are anticipated to match the overall performance of the wider market. The remaining shares receive either a #2 (Buy), which includes the best-performing 15% of all stocks, or a #1 (Strong Buy), representing the leading 5%. These highly rated stocks are projected to surpass the market’s returns, with those holding a Strong Buy status being likely to show greater gains compared to others within their ranks.
Do You Think About Renting From United Rentals?
The final task for today, after understanding the potential and power of the ESP as a tool, is to swiftly examine a qualifying stock. United Rentals (URI) currently holds a #3 (Hold) rating and its most precise forecast predicts a price of $11.12 per share, with an earnings announcement scheduled for July 23, 2025, just 30 days away.
Using the percentage difference between the $11.12 Most Accurate Estimate and the $10.59 Zacks Consensus Estimate, United Rentals shows an Earnings Surprise Percentage (ESP) of +4.97%. It’s important for investors to be aware that URI belongs to a substantial set of stocks featuring positive ESPs. To find the top picks among these stocks for buying or selling prior to their earnings reports, make use of our Earnings ESP Filter.
The URI is part of an extensive database featuring Construction sector stocks with favorable EPS figures. Another promising stock worth considering is Martin Marietta (MLM) .
Martin Marietta, preparing to release earnings on August 14, 2025, has a current Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Its most precise estimate stands at $5.67 per share, with the company being approximately 52 days away from its upcoming earnings announcement.
For Martin Marietta, the discrepancy between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.50 stands at +3.04%.
Since both companies have a favorable Earnings ESP, URI and MLM might likely surpass expectations in their upcoming earnings reports.
Discover Stocks to Purchase or Offload Before Their Reports
Utilize the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to identify stocks most likely to either positively or negatively surprise, providing opportunities to buy or sell before their reports for lucrative earnings-season trades. Explore more details here >>
The article was initially published on Zacks Investment Research (appstoreofficial.id).