0857 ET - As tensions between the US and Iran resurface, they restore the haven appeal of Treasuries and the dollar, previously undermined following President Trump’s announcement of extensive tariff measures. This has led to declining treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Later today, at 9:45 AM ET, we will see the release of preliminary figures for US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal anticipate only a minor dip. Simultaneously, service sector PMIs are also scheduled with expectations pointing towards a slight rise. In tomorrow's developments, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will commence his biennial testimony before Congress. Additionally, upcoming Friday brings anticipated higher Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rates. Currently, the ten-year bond yield stands at 4.345%, whereas the two-year sits at 3.887%. Furthermore, the WSJ Dollar Index indicates an increment of 0.6%. paulo.trevisani@wsj.com ; @ptrevisani)
US Treasury Securities May Gain Less from Safe-Haven Buying Spree
06:06 GMT - According to Danske Bank Research’s Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen in her report, the effect of the cautious market mood due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East might not significantly affect Treasurys compared to typical expectations. "There is greater uncertainty regarding how US Treasurys will react because they come amid considerable trade deficits and tariffs along with an anticipated rise in Treasury issuance under softer fiscal policies," she notes. However, this situation could exert a stronger influence on Germany's bond market since investors prefer investing in Bunds over US Treasurys during such times. Currently, the 10-year US Treasury yield has increased by 1.6 basis points to reach 4.390%, based on data from LSEG. emese.bartha@wsj.com )
US Treasury yields remain steady amid escalating unrest in the Middle East
0542 GMT - Yields on U.S. Treasuries remain largely stable as market participants digest the intensification of hostilities between Israel and Iran over the weekend. Following strikes against Iran's nuclear sites, President Trump has not ruled out supporting changes in Iran's regime. Nonetheless, the immediate future appears uncertain. "A direct assault by the US on Iranian nuclear installations might heighten the risk of broader tensions in the Middle East," notes Holger Schmieding from Berenberg in his report. There is potential for sustained high oil prices due to serious doubts surrounding the progression of this conflict and possible disruptions to oil and natural gas shipments through the Gulf area, states the chief economist. As per data provided by LSEG, the ten-year Treasury yield has risen marginally by 1.4 basis points to stand at 4.388%. emese.bartha@wsj.com )
Peripheral Eurozone Government Bond Yield Spreads Benefit from Favorable Conditions
0556 GMT - According to Barclays' analysts Max Kitson and Pratham Hukkat Kinger in their report, favorable conditions for narrowing yield spread differentials between Eurozone peripheral government bonds are expected to persist through the latter part of this year. These nations continue to enjoy credit rating improvements, and political uncertainties within those regions seem under control. Additionally, fiscal shortfalls in peripheral Eurozone states will likely align more closely with Germany’s deficits as Berlin prepares to increase its borrowings. The experts assert, "In our view, all these elements suggest that without encountering unforeseen disruptions, yields could keep tightening across peripherals during the rest of the year." emese.bartha@wsj.com )
This Week’s U.S. Treasury Auctions Present a Chance to Extend Maturity Dates
0542 GMT — According to Morgan Stanley Research analysts, investors ought to utilize this week’s U.S. Treasury offerings as an opportunity to extend their durations. These experts favor sectors within the two-to-seven-year maturity range and suggest increasing holdings in five-year notes specifically. They advise entering positions for five-year Treasury notes when yields hit 3.96%, aiming for a target yield of 3.25%, with a protective stop-loss set at 4.20%. Currently, the five-year Treasury yield has risen one basis point to stand at 3.969%, based on data from LSEG. This week, the U.S. Treasury plans auctions: $69 billion worth of two-year bills on Tuesday, followed by $70 billion of five-year notes on Wednesday, concluding with $44 billion of seven-year securities on Thursday. emese.bartha@wsj.com )